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Behavioural theories of dispersion and the mis-specification of travel demand models
December 7, 2017
12:18 pm
jensen breck

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      Conventional of first generation transport models have for some time been heavily criticised for their lack of behavioural content and inefficient use of data; more recently second generation or disaggregate travel demand models based on a theory of choice between discrete alternatives have also been viewed critically. First, it has been argued that implemented structures—and particularly the Multinomial Logit model—have not been sufficiently general to accommodate the “interaction” between alternatives; and second, and perhaps more importantly, that the underpinning theory, involving a perfectly discriminating rational man (homo economicus), endowed with complete information is an unacceptable starting point for the analysis of behaviour. In this paper the potential errors in forecasting travel response arising from theoretical misrepresentation are investigated; more generally, the problems of inference and hypothesis testing in conjuction with cross-sectional models are noted.

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